Do Banks' current quarter results represent an economy's outlook?

In my last blog, I had discussed recently concluded quarter results about various firms like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, Amazon. Looking at the current economic outlook and the way the organizations are slashing their payroll to remain in profit, one question comes to everyone's mind "Do the quarterly results of the firms represent the economy outlook?"

Goldman Sachs declared record quarterly profits in their history surpassing analyst expectations, while Microsoft and Amazon could not meet analyst expectations to reach their targets. We can consider sentiment plays an important part when DOW-JONES tumbled upto 6600 in Mar'06 in response to continuous failure of banks in US and most of the retailer's same stores sales were plummeting. Since March '09, DOW has recovered upto 9200 in July 31st, increased ~40% and it shows the optimism across the board rather than an economic outlook. There are not much changes to the economy since March '09, as Unemployment has increased from ~8.5% to ~9.7% from Mar '09 till Jul '09, 57 more banks have filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy since Jan '09, industries are still cutting payrolls, job cuts were 467,000 in Jun '09, 322,000 in May '09.

Results of the banks are showing optimism in the economy as there is positive sentiment in the economy for signs of stabilization, but they do not provide the exact picture of the economy. Rather firms whose profits are directly related to the consumer spending such as Discount Retailers e.g. Walmart, Sears, Electronic retailers like RadioShack, BestBuy, J&R, online retailers e.g. Amazon, OfficeDepot and most of the retailing firms' results are not showing any improvement even though they are cutting their payroll to remain in profit. And till the time unemployment is rising, and there wont be any positive signs on people's spending there can't be any growth to the economy.

Obama led government is putting their every effort to increase consumer spending and provide employment by increasing construction, bridge, roads related contractual works. But DOW's 2600 points jump from Mar '09 till Jul '09 does give breath to consumers till the time teh industries feel confident about the economy and again start hiring.

So we can say economy is stabilizing and it will take 9/12 months before it shows good signs of improvement.

-Amit

Kutch/Gujarat an ideal investment destination in India

Kutch is a growing economic and industrial hub in one of India's fastest growing states,Gujarat and it is becoming an ideal investment destination for big investors and big business houses in India. As a nature Kutch-Gujarat is almost dead agricultural region where the average annual rain is 250mm and most its land is covered with sand. But since 2001's earthquake epi-center in Kutch region and Gujarat's Chief Minister Mr. Naredra Modi's ideal thoughts to grow industries in the region has attracted investors from all around the world. Government declared tax incentives upto 15 years.

Kutch's Kandla port is considered the most busy port in India after Mumbai's Jawaharlal Nehru port and has attracted lots businesses related to transportation and import/export in the region since decades. And since Mr. Narendra Modi's ideal sight of converting an idle region into a business destination, land prices increased more than 10/15 times in a span of 7 years(this depends on location and growth oriented areas). And due to large tax incentives and government's 'Vibrant Gujarat' initiatives it attracted Rs.12,000,000 Crore worth of MOUs in 2009's event to invest in businesses. Apart from Kandla port, Mundra port is developed by Adani Industries whose businesses range from pickel export, power/coal trading, natural gas trading, power and import/export.

The industries who are investing includes World leader in Wall Clock Manufacturing Ajanta group's CFL plant, Nissan Motors manufacturing plant that will export the assembled Nissan motors to Europe region and host of businesses(including Welspun group in Anjar, JayPee group, Jindal group and couple of windmill farms) who wants to take advantage of the tax incentives and its ideal destination for import/export market. Sanghi industries is having India's biggest cement plant at a single location and currently expanding.

Kutch is mineral rich region with very large reserve of Lignite, Gypsum and lot of other mineral. GMDC(Gujarat Mineral Development Corp) and lot of Cement industries are dependent on this materials are expanding their wings in the mineral rich region.

In all, Kutch's ideal location and geographical benefits would help it attract lots of manufacturing businesses and help to provide more synergies to export-focused businesses.

View invited from readers.

Amit