Wednesday, April 14, 2010

If china chooses to unfreeze its currency, how it would be beneficial to India and other emerging markets?

If china chooses to unfreeze its currency, how it would be beneficial to India and other emerging markets?
 
United states and other leading countries have been accusing China for freezing its currency to let export boom continue and strengthen its economy at the cost of jobs in developed economies. China chose to freeze its currency as part of its economic strategies that would support more and more exports from the country and continue to take a big pie of the exports market all over the world.
 
Watching the success of China, India and other emerging nations have been applying the similar approach to create jobs by developing export oriented market. India is considered back office of the world, but similarly it also owns cheap labor resources due to favorable exchange rates. India has been trying to establish world class infrastructure in place to attract more export. India’s political scenario and decision making did not help it to compete with china.
 
There could be couple of scenarios if China unfreezes the exchange rates:
China to maintain export boom:
Currently China’s per capita income per day in those export led factories are $1.00 and due to favorable exchange rates it helps the Chinese people to maintain decent life. While US and other developed nations pay almost $7.00 an hour for labor jobs. However even if due to freely traded Yuan, if Yuan appreciates 40-50%, it will make the same china job pays approximately $2.00 a day, which is still quite less as compared to what US and other developed countries pay. The end result would be China is still maintaining the export boom and US will continue to import from China. And since increased exchange rates would make US goods more expensive. So it would be a setback for US.
 
India and emerging nations gains market share:
If china and export led businesses find better places to manufacture the goods and export it to developed economies, it would provide a proxy to China. India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Myanmar and other Asian nations can fill the gap by providing the manufacturing at cheap rates. However, the shift of exports from China to other countries is not going to help US or any other developed nations to save jobs. The already started battle to maintain competitiveness across organizations will find alternative destinations to produce cheaper goods and services.
 
 
However, there will be advantages to other emerging nations as they will share a pie of the export boom and similarly to US and other nations multinational firms to gain more business from more countries.
 
 

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